Question

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What would be its impact in India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region?

Answer 1

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a global sea level rise of about one meter by 2100, driven by factors such as thermal expansion of the oceans, melting glaciers, and ice sheets. This rise poses significant challenges for coastal regions worldwide, including India and other countries in the Indian Ocean region. The potential impacts are multifaceted, affecting ecosystems, economies, and human settlements.

Impact of Sea Level Rise in India

1. Coastal Erosion and Habitat Loss:

   • Erosion: Rising sea levels can accelerate coastal erosion, leading to the loss of beaches and wetlands. This affects habitats for diverse species and reduces natural barriers against storms.
   • Mangroves: Mangrove ecosystems, crucial for biodiversity and coastal protection, are threatened by submersion and saltwater intrusion.

2. Flooding and Inundation:

   • Urban Areas: Major cities like Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata are at risk of frequent flooding, impacting infrastructure, housing, and essential services.
   • Rural Areas: Low-lying rural regions, such as the Sundarbans and parts of Kerala, face increased inundation risks, affecting agriculture and livelihoods.

3. Salinization of Groundwater:

   • Agricultural Impact: Saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers can reduce agricultural productivity, affecting food security and water availability.
   • Drinking Water: Coastal communities may face shortages of potable water due to salinization of wells and water sources.

4. Economic Consequences:

   • Fisheries and Livelihoods: Disruptions in marine ecosystems can affect fisheries, impacting livelihoods for millions who depend on fishing and related activities.
   • Infrastructure Damage: Increased flooding and storm surges can damage infrastructure, leading to higher repair and maintenance costs.

5. Health and Social Impacts:

   • Health Risks: Increased flooding and stagnant water can lead to outbreaks of waterborne diseases, affecting public health.
   • Displacement: Sea level rise may force displacement of populations from vulnerable coastal areas, leading to social and economic challenges.

Impact on Other Countries in the Indian Ocean Region

1. Maldives:

   • Existential Threat: The Maldives, with an average elevation of just 1.5 meters above sea level, faces an existential threat from rising seas, potentially rendering many islands uninhabitable.
   • Tourism and Economy: The tourism-driven economy is at risk due to the loss of beaches and infrastructure damage.

2. Sri Lanka:

   • Coastal Communities: Rising sea levels threaten coastal communities, particularly in regions like the Western and Southern provinces.
   • Agriculture: Saltwater intrusion can affect paddy fields and plantations, impacting food security and rural livelihoods.

3. Bangladesh:

   • High Vulnerability: Low-lying delta regions are highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges, exacerbating poverty and displacement issues.
   • Biodiversity: Important ecosystems like the Sundarbans are at risk, affecting biodiversity and ecosystem services.

4. Indonesia:

   • Urban Challenges: Major cities like Jakarta are at risk of flooding, requiring extensive adaptation measures and infrastructure investment.
   • Biodiversity Loss: Sea level rise threatens coastal ecosystems, including coral reefs and mangroves.

5. East African Countries (e.g., Tanzania, Mozambique):

   • Coastal Erosion: Increased erosion threatens coastal settlements and infrastructure.
   • Food Security: Changes in marine ecosystems can impact fisheries, affecting food security and economic stability.

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

1. Coastal Defense and Infrastructure:

   • Sea Walls and Barriers: Construction of sea walls, levees, and barriers can help protect vulnerable areas from erosion and flooding.
   • Elevated Infrastructure: Designing elevated infrastructure and buildings can mitigate flooding impacts in urban areas.

2. Ecosystem-Based Adaptation:

   • Mangrove Restoration: Restoring and protecting mangrove forests can enhance natural coastal defenses and provide habitats for biodiversity.
   • Coral Reef Protection: Protecting and restoring coral reefs can reduce wave energy and protect shorelines.

3. Policy and Governance:

   • Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM): Implementing ICZM policies can ensure sustainable development and conservation of coastal resources.
   • Climate-Resilient Planning: Incorporating climate resilience into urban planning and development strategies can reduce vulnerability.

4. Community Engagement and Education:

   • Awareness Programs: Educating communities about the risks of sea level rise and adaptation strategies can enhance preparedness and resilience.
   • Participatory Planning: Involving local communities in planning and decision-making processes can ensure that adaptation measures are context-specific and effective.

Conclusion

The projected sea level rise poses significant challenges for India and other countries in the Indian Ocean region. Addressing these challenges requires a combination of infrastructural, ecological, and policy-based strategies to enhance resilience and protect vulnerable communities. Collaborative efforts at local, national, and international levels are essential to effectively mitigate the impacts of rising seas and ensure sustainable development in the face of climate change.