Disentangling the 2030 Global Renewable Energy Target
Introduction
The 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has proposed a global target of tripling renewable energy (RE) capacity by 2030. While this has been lauded as an aspirational goal, it requires meticulous evaluation, especially in the context of global equity and feasibility.
The 2030 Target in Numbers
As of 2021, the global installed capacity for renewable energy sources (RES) stood at 3026 Giga Watts (GW). The proposal aims to triple this to approximately 9000 GW by 2030. This ambitious target predominantly leans on solar and wind energy, considering the lengthy timelines required for hydro plants.
Example: If we aim for 9000 GW, then solar and wind energy, which currently constitute 36% of RE generation, would have a major role to play in achieving this objective.
Issues with the Target
Global vs Regional Needs
Energy consumption patterns differ significantly across countries. Developing nations like India and China have a rising electricity demand compared to the stagnant or declining demand in developed regions like the European Union and the United States.
Example: The annual growth rate of electricity consumption between 2010 and 2019 was 6.6% and 6.3% for China and India, respectively, whereas it declined by 0.3% in the European Union.
Inequitable Burden on Developing Countries
If developed nations like the U.S. and the EU do not accelerate their transition from fossil fuels to renewables, the brunt of the ambitious global target would fall on developing nations.
Example: The U.S. would only need 26 GW of new RE capacity to meet additional demand, a negligible share of the proposed 6000 GW increase. In contrast, India would need about 717 GW.
Transparency and Equity in COP28 Proposals
The COP28 proposals lack clarity in origin and skew more towards an inequitable distribution of responsibilities. This is evident from a similar scenario painted by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
Example: According to IRENA’s scenario, 80% of power generation capacity in SubSaharan Africa is to be from RE sources by 2030, compared to 70% for the EU, putting an unfair burden on developing regions.
Financial and Infrastructural Challenges
The target overlooks key issues like the stability of supply, the need for a complementary nonRE capacity, and financing constraints, particularly for developing countries.
Example: Achieving the target would require a massive scaleup of viable storage options and national grids, a costly venture that becomes challenging in the absence of sufficient climate finance.
Concluding Remarks
While the proposed target to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 is commendable, it raises serious questions of feasibility and equity. As nations convene at COP28, there is a need for more equitable and realistic targets, which should also be adopted domestically by developed countries.
Example: A balanced approach would be for developed nations to also commit to absolute and equitable targets, aligning with their responsibility and historical emissions, to make the global goal truly inclusive and achievable.
